The Denver Metropolitan Area’s second largest city has grown rapidly, and has plenty of land available for future expansion. In recent decades, however, Aurora’s water use has not increased nearly as rapidly as its population, as water customers have become much more efficient in response to rising prices, proactive conservation efforts, and other factors. To prioritize its infrastructure investments for the future, Aurora needed better demand projections that could account for increasing customer efficiency and recognize the inherent uncertainty in forecasting more than 50 years in the future.

As part of Aurora’s Integrated Water Management Plan consulting team (led by MWH Global), Mr. Jeavons directed BBC’s detailed analysis of water use trends by customer type, quantification of factors affecting water use, and development of long-term demand projections. BBC developed a probabilistic demand forecasting model for Aurora, which explicitly recognized and quantified the uncertainties inherent in long-term projections of water use intensity and economic and demographic forecasts. BBC also provided disaggregated forecasts of future water demands for more than 200 subareas within the overall Aurora Water service area to assist the City with distribution and treatment planning.